In October, glass futures prices showed range-bound fluctuations. After the holiday, the domestic float glass spot market generally rose. As most downstream raw film reserves are low before the National Day, and companies are in high spirits during the holidays, some companies have low inventory, which drives downstream post-holiday replenishment. Production companies have higher production and sales, and corporate inventories have dropped significantly. However, as the supply side continues to increase, although terminal orders are in volume, they are affected by financial problems, and the overall downstream orders are limited. Most downstream companies still need to replenish goods. As shipments slow down in phases, some companies have begun to implement preferential policies to promote sales. However, the northwest market is in the rush period, and the demand can still support the price increase of a few companies. The center of gravity of glass prices that month shifted downward and fluctuated.
Looking forward to the market outlook, glass profits will drive the production lines that were cold repaired in the early stage to resume production one after another, resulting in an increase in daily melting volume. The supply will also show a growth trend. However, considering the impact of cold repairs on some elderly production lines, the increase in supply during the year will be relatively limited. . On the raw material side, coal has a strong performance. In the later period, the north will enter the heating season, and natural gas prices are also expected to rise. The cost side will provide some support for glass prices. On the demand side, real estate back-end data maintains a high-prosperity development range and will continue to promote positive year-on-year growth in completed area. Although the real estate industry ended the industry winter period in the second quarter, the effect was weaker than expected. Financial institutions are more cautious about real estate development. Risk concerns have not yet been alleviated, and real estate companies’ funding is still tight. From a sales perspective, it is still forming a negative cycle for the entire real estate chain. It is difficult for real estate companies’ funds to flow back quickly, which in turn will hinder the guarantee of the delivery of the building or the completion of the project. The difficulty in repayment of glass downstream deep-processing enterprises has become more prominent. Funding problems are common, and the intention of purchasing and stocking is still low. Processing enterprises mainly replenish their stocks based on their own order situation. As original film companies begin to offer discounts one after another, purchasing may become more cautious. This year, new real estate construction starts have experienced a significant negative growth, which is also negative for glass assembly demand in the long term. From an inventory perspective, the current inventory pressure on glass companies is not great. In the absence of obvious inventory accumulation, glass factories will not carry out large-scale price reduction promotions. However, there is no strong driver for further increases. It is expected that the glass futures price will rise or Showing a range-bound trend. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the restoration of confidence in the real estate chain as a result of policy easing and whether residents can improve their purchase of houses.
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Post time: Nov-16-2023
